Bullish for HDFCAMC: Gold ETF Inflows Crash 57%, Equity Wins

AMFI's March data showed gold ETF inflows collapsing 56.9% MoM and silver ETFs slipping into net outflows, while equity mutual funds saw robust retail-led inflows. The shift coincided with a stronger dollar and rising bond yields that pressured gold prices. It marks a clear preference rotation from defensive metals to risk assets.

Indian retail investors had been piling into gold/silver ETFs through 2025 as a hedge; a sharp reversal signals risk-on conviction returning despite global volatility. For listed AMCs, equity inflows carry materially higher fee margins than passive metal ETFs, directly boosting earnings quality. It also suggests SIP culture is deepening rather than rotating to safe havens during dips.

Positive for AMC stocks — HDFCAMC, NAM-INDIA, UTIAMC and ABSLAMC benefit from richer equity AUM mix. Negative for gold-linked names: MUTHOOTFIN and MANAPPURAM face LTV pressure as gold softens, while jewellery retailers TITAN, KALYANKJIL and RAJESHEXPO may see sentiment headwinds. Bullion-heavy ETF AUMs at AMCs may shrink but equity offsets dominate.

Watch April AMFI data (due early May) for confirmation of the trend and SIP run-rate above Rs 26,000 cr. Track COMEX gold below $2,950 and INR-gold support; a bounce would invalidate the rotation thesis. Monitor MUTHOOTFIN/MANAPPURAM Q4 commentary on gold loan AUM and LTV stress.

• •Gold ETF inflows declined 56.9% MoM in March per AMFI data
• •Silver ETFs saw net outflows in March
• •Equity funds reported strong retail-led inflows amid market volatility
• •Gold prices fell on stronger dollar and rising yields