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ValuePickrabout 3 hours ago
NEUTRAL
hold

HDFC Bank- we understand your world

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Market Impact Score
-100 Bearish+100 Bullish

AI Analysis

Trying to play the devils advocate here. At 30 times FY 20 earnings multiple, the PE ratio seems stretched. While a consistent growth of 20% yoy would have been feasible during years of credit boom, it seems outright improbable thanks to the base effect (book going beyond 8 lakh crores requiring an asset addition of almost a lakh crore here onwards). Not sure if a valuation of 4.5 times book is justified in the face of falling GDP and rise in delinquencies (not withstanding their impeccable performance during past down cycles on a much smaller base). In the absence of incremental credit growth from existing customers, HDFC Bank only has recourse to the following Growth through securitisation involving purchase of retail NBFC portfolio (low risk immediately considering RBI backstop till 2020) Increase in rural (NPA experience of > 1 historically) and consumer discretionary funding (retail

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