Bearish Risk: Iran Conflict Drives Crude Forecasts Up; OMCs, Aviation Face Headwinds

The ongoing Iran conflict has significantly disrupted global oil supply routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, leading analysts to sharply increase 2026 Brent crude price forecasts by nearly 30% to an average of $82.85 per barrel. This geopolitical event directly impacts the cost of a critical global commodity.

For India, a major net importer of crude oil, this translates to higher import bills, increased inflationary pressures, and potential widening of the current account deficit. Elevated oil prices can dampen economic growth, raise input costs for various industries, and put pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to maintain a hawkish monetary stance.

Oil marketing companies like IOC, BPCL, and HPCL will face negative impacts due to higher procurement costs and potential margin compression if retail fuel prices are not fully adjusted. Aviation stocks such as INDIGO and SPICEJET will also be negatively affected by rising Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) prices. Conversely, upstream oil producers like ONGC could see positive impacts from higher crude realizations.

Traders should monitor the geopolitical developments in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, for any de-escalation or further intensification. Watch for government interventions on fuel pricing, RBI's stance on inflation, and the quarterly results of OMCs and aviation companies for signs of margin pressure or relief.

• •Iran conflict triggered an unprecedented shock in global oil markets.
• •Analysts sharply raised 2026 price forecasts for Brent crude to average $82.85 per barrel.
• •This represents a nearly 30% increase from February forecasts.
• •Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are the primary driver, forcing output cuts and exacerbating shortages.