Jefferies' Chris Wood Stays Bullish on India; Pakistan a Tactical Bet

Jefferies' chief global strategist Chris Wood called Pakistan a profitable tactical play tied to its IMF cycle, while reiterating a favourable structural view on India despite geopolitical risks. The note is a relative-value call across South Asia rather than a sector-specific trigger. For Indian markets, the takeaway is that a closely-watched FII-facing strategist remains overweight India.

Chris Wood's GREED & fear note influences global allocator positioning, and continued India overweight helps cushion FII outflow narratives. With the article over a month old, immediate market impact has dissipated, but the underlying stance still anchors foreign investor sentiment toward Nifty and Sensex. Any escalation in India-Pakistan geopolitical risk could test this thesis.

Broad index sentiment positive — supportive for large-cap proxies in Nifty50 and Bank Nifty (HDFCBANK, ICICIBANK, RELIANCE, INFY) which dominate FII flows. No single-stock trigger; impact is via top-down allocation rather than bottom-up earnings. Defence and border-sensitive names could see headline-driven volatility if geopolitical risk flares.

Track FII cash-market flows on NSE, USDINR, and any updates to Jefferies' India model portfolio. Monitor India-Pakistan diplomatic newsflow as a tail risk to Wood's thesis. Watch Nifty support around recent swing lows to gauge whether foreign bid is genuinely intact.

• •Chris Wood views Pakistan as a tactical play linked to IMF cycles
• •Maintains a favourable view on India despite geopolitical risks
• •Commentary published in Jefferies research note