US-Iran war: How to tweak your stock portfolio after Trump's address to the nation

The lack of clarity on the Strait of Hormuz keeps crude oil prices elevated, directly impacting India's import bill and inflation outlook. This creates a challenging environment for downstream oil companies and energy-intensive sectors.

Maintain a bearish bias on oil marketing companies (OMCs) and airlines due to rising input costs. Consider a cautious bullish stance on upstream oil producers, but be mindful of potential government intervention to cap gains.

For Indian markets, this story mainly matters for ONGC, RELIANCE, IOC and the Oil & Gas, Aviation, Chemicals pocket. The current signal is bearish, so traders should look for follow-through in price, volume, and sector breadth instead of reacting to the headline alone.

Watch whether the next market session confirms the setup described here: Higher crude oil prices generally benefit upstream oil producers. Higher crude prices benefit its upstream segment but can negatively impact its refining and petrochemical margins if not fully passed on. Also track volume confirmation, sector participation, and whether the move holds beyond the first reaction.

• •US President Donald Trump's address did not signal future actions regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
• •The Strait of Hormuz is a critical choke point for oil supply.
• •Oil prices are currently at multi-year highs due to the situation.
• •Risk flag: Any de-escalation in US-Iran tensions could lead to a sharp correction in crude oil prices.
• •Risk flag: Government intervention in fuel pricing could impact OMCs' ability to pass on costs.