US-Iran war: Can US dollar replace gold as safe-haven asset amid soaring oil prices?

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East directly influence global crude oil prices, which are a major determinant for India's energy sector due to high import dependency. The debate over safe-haven assets (USD vs. Gold) also impacts capital flows and currency stability.

Maintain a cautious stance on oil marketing companies (OMCs) due to potential margin compression from rising crude prices; consider short-term volatility plays in gold and silver based on safe-haven demand shifts.

For Indian markets, this story mainly matters for ONGC, IOC, and the Oil & Gas, Precious Metals pocket. The current signal is mixed, so traders should look for follow-through in price, volume, and sector breadth instead of reacting to the headline alone.

Watch whether the next market session confirms the setup described here: Higher crude oil prices generally benefit upstream companies like ONGC, but geopolitical instability adds uncertainty. Soaring oil prices increase input costs for oil marketing companies, potentially squeezing refining margins if not fully passed on. Also track volume confirmation, sector participation, and whether the move holds beyond the first reaction.

• •US dollar index has rebounded strongly after falling nearly 10% in 2025, despite US involvement in the war.
• •Experts are debating whether the US dollar could replace gold as a safe-haven asset amid soaring oil prices.
• •The context highlights an ongoing US-Iran war and its impact on market chaos and safe-haven assets.
• •Risk flag: Sudden escalation or de-escalation of US-Iran conflict
• •Risk flag: RBI intervention in currency markets