Bearish Cue: $600B Wiped Off Nifty as FIIs Flee — RELIANCE, HDFCBANK Hit

Foreign portfolio investors have pulled out of Indian equities at a record pace, erasing more than $600 billion in market value from last year's peak. The selling is fueled by a US-Iran energy shock spiking crude and the relative absence of AI-linked investment themes in India versus US markets. Strong domestic inflows have softened but not stopped the slide.

FII flows remain the marginal price-setter for Nifty/Sensex heavyweights even as DII SIP money provides a floor. A sustained, structural outflow signals India is losing relative appeal in a global portfolio rebalancing toward US AI beneficiaries. Combined with an oil-import-driven CAD risk, this caps near-term upside for the broader market.

FII-heavy largecaps like RELIANCE, HDFCBANK, ICICIBANK, INFY and TCS face the most direct selling pressure. OMCs (IOC, BPCL, HPCL) are squeezed by elevated crude, while ONGC sees mixed effects from higher realisations offset by macro drag. Domestic-consumption and capex names with low FII float are relatively insulated.

Track daily FII cash data, USDINR (watch 84-85 zone), and Brent crude trajectory tied to US-Iran developments. A decisive break of Nifty support or a reversal in FII flows after results season are key triggers. Watch DII absorption capacity and SIP run-rate for downside cushion.

• •Over $600 billion wiped off Indian equity market cap from last year's peak
• •Record-pace FII outflows driven by US-Iran energy shock
• •Lack of compelling AI-linked investment narratives in India vs US
• •Strong domestic inflows have not been enough to offset foreign selling