Oil could hit $140 if Iran tensions escalate, warns Peter McGuire; here's what happens to gold next

India is a net importer of crude oil, making its economy highly vulnerable to global price fluctuations. Elevated crude prices can lead to higher inflation, increased current account deficit, and pressure on the Indian Rupee.

Maintain a cautious stance on sectors heavily reliant on crude oil (OMCs, airlines, logistics) and consider defensive plays in upstream oil producers and precious metals, with strict stop-losses due to geopolitical uncertainty.

For Indian markets, this story mainly matters for IOC, ONGC, RELIANCE and the Oil & Gas, Precious Metals, Aviation pocket. The current signal is bearish, so traders should look for follow-through in price, volume, and sector breadth instead of reacting to the headline alone.

Watch whether the next market session confirms the setup described here: Higher crude oil prices increase input costs for OMCs, impacting refining margins and profitability. As an upstream oil producer, ONGC benefits from higher crude oil realization prices. Also track volume confirmation, sector participation, and whether the move holds beyond the first reaction.

• •Peter McGuire warns oil could hit $130-$140 per barrel if Iran tensions escalate.
• •Trump's Iran ultimatum has created market volatility in oil, gold, and silver.
• •Precious metals experienced a surprising pullback but a recovery is anticipated.
• •Crude oil price has already jumped 5% to above $105, putting OMCs in focus.
• •Risk flag: Unpredictable geopolitical developments in the Middle East.