Bearish Risk: Inflation to Hit Q1 Earnings, Warns HDFC Securities

Unmesh Sharma of HDFC Securities anticipates that the full brunt of inflation on corporate earnings will become evident in the June quarter. This suggests that the pricing power of companies will erode, and consumer spending, or 'wallets,' will be compressed, leading to a challenging earnings season.

This is significant for traders as it signals a potential slowdown in corporate profit growth, with HDFC Securities revising its full-year estimate to a modest 10-11%. Such a revision, coupled with risks like monsoon and the Ukraine war, could lead to broader market corrections, especially in sectors reliant on consumer demand.

Consumer discretionary stocks, FMCG companies, and the auto sector are likely to face negative pressure due to compressed consumer wallets and rising input costs. Companies with strong pricing power or those in defensive sectors might fare better. Traders should monitor earnings reports from companies like MARUTI, HINDUNILVR, and TITAN for early signs of impact.

Traders should closely watch the upcoming Q1 FY25 earnings reports for signs of margin compression and demand slowdown. Monitor inflation data, monsoon progress, and global geopolitical developments for further cues. Any policy responses from the RBI to curb inflation will also be critical.

• •Unmesh Sharma of HDFC Securities expects full inflation impact on earnings in the June quarter.
• •Inflation may compress consumer wallets and erode pricing power.
• •Monsoon and Ukraine war are key risks.
• •Full-year earnings growth estimate revised to 10-11% (single-digit).
• •Risk flag: Sustained high commodity prices