“No quick end in sight”: Andrew Freris flags prolonged war risks for global market

The energy sector, particularly oil & gas, will remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments and crude price movements. The long-term narrative of shifting away from oil could gain traction, impacting investment flows.

Maintain a cautious stance on traditional oil & gas stocks; consider hedging strategies or reducing exposure. Look for entry points in renewable energy stocks on dips, anticipating increased policy support and investment.

For Indian markets, this story mainly matters for ONGC, IOC and the Energy, Oil & Gas, Power pocket. The current signal is bearish, so traders should look for follow-through in price, volume, and sector breadth instead of reacting to the headline alone.

Watch whether the next market session confirms the setup described here: Prolonged geopolitical tensions could lead to crude price volatility, impacting upstream oil producers. While higher crude prices might seem positive, sustained instability and a global shift away from oil could be long-term negatives. Oil marketing companies are vulnerable to crude price fluctuations. While they can pass on some costs, prolonged high prices or supply disruptions can squeeze margins and impact profitability. Also track volume confirmation, sector participation, and whether the move holds beyond the first reaction.

• •Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran are expected to lead to a prolonged period of instability.
• •Experts predict no swift resolution to the conflict.
• •Oil supply disruptions are a concern, but historical precedent suggests adaptation.
• •The crisis may accelerate the global shift away from oil dependence.
• •Risk flag: Sudden escalation or de-escalation of geopolitical tensions.