Mixed Cues: US-Iran Tensions, Oil Prices to Drive Dalal Street

The energy sector in India is currently navigating global energy uncertainty and rising domestic demand. Geopolitical tensions, particularly those affecting crude oil supply, directly impact the profitability of Indian oil and gas companies and the broader power sector.

Maintain a neutral to slightly bearish bias on oil-sensitive stocks if geopolitical tensions escalate, with tight stop-losses.

For Indian markets, this story mainly matters for ONGC, IOC, NTPC and the Oil & Gas, Metals & Mining, Power pocket. The current signal is bullish, so traders should look for follow-through in price, volume, and sector breadth instead of reacting to the headline alone.

Watch whether the next market session confirms the setup described here: Crude oil price movements directly affect ONGC's upstream revenues and profitability. Oil price volatility impacts refining margins and inventory gains/losses for OMCs. Also track volume confirmation, sector participation, and whether the move holds beyond the first reaction.

• •US-Iran ceasefire uncertainty and oil prices are key factors to watch.
• •Market expected to remain volatile and range-bound with a positive bias.
• •Sustainability of uptrend will be key next week.
• •Focus on Q4 earnings, FII sentiment, and China's March quarter GDP numbers.
• •Risk flag: Sharp increase in crude oil prices due to geopolitical events.