Oil prices extend gains; WTI crude surges to $115/bbl due to supply disruption amid US-Iran war

Rising crude oil prices are a major inflationary concern for India, a net oil importer. This directly impacts the current account deficit and can lead to higher interest rates by the RBI.

Maintain a bearish bias on oil-consuming sectors and a bullish bias on upstream oil producers, with strict stop-losses given the volatile geopolitical landscape.

For Indian markets, this story mainly matters for ONGC, RELIANCE, IOC and the Oil & Gas, Aviation, Chemicals pocket. The current signal is bearish, so traders should look for follow-through in price, volume, and sector breadth instead of reacting to the headline alone.

Watch whether the next market session confirms the setup described here: Higher crude oil prices directly increase revenue and profitability for upstream oil producers. Benefits from upstream oil & gas exploration but faces higher input costs for its refining and petrochemicals segments. Also track volume confirmation, sector participation, and whether the move holds beyond the first reaction.

• •WTI crude surged past $115 per barrel on Monday, April 6.
• •The surge is attributed to supply disruption amid the US-Iran war.
• •Experts are questioning if prices will continue to soar.
• •Risk flag: Rapid de-escalation of US-Iran conflict could lead to sharp crude price correction.
• •Risk flag: Government intervention in fuel pricing could impact OMCs' profitability.