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Geopolitical tensions directly impact crude oil supply, which is a critical input for India's energy sector. Any disruption can significantly alter refining margins and downstream profitability.
Easing crude oil prices are a net positive for India's economy, reducing import costs and potentially cooling inflation. This can indirectly support consumer discretionary spending, including on jewelry.
Rising crude oil prices are a double-edged sword for the energy sector; beneficial for upstream producers but a cost burden for refiners and marketers. Global economic health, particularly in the US, directly impacts demand forecasts and pricing.
The energy sector is highly sensitive to geopolitical events and supply-demand dynamics. UAE's exit from OPEC introduces a new variable to global oil supply, potentially increasing volatility.